The G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro has been overshadowed by escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, significantly influencing the summit’s proceedings and global economic stability.

Key Developments:

• Ukraine’s Use of U.S.-Supplied Missiles: Ukraine reportedly deployed U.S.-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles to strike targets within Russia, marking a notable escalation in the conflict.
• Russia’s Expanded Nuclear Doctrine: In response, President Vladimir Putin formalized an updated nuclear doctrine, broadening the conditions under which Russia might employ nuclear weapons, including conventional attacks from non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers.
• U.S. and European Reactions: President Joe Biden, attending his final G20 summit, emphasized global issues like climate change but did not directly address the Russia-Ukraine conflict in his public remarks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized the U.S. decision to authorize Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles, interpreting it as a deliberate provocation.
• Summit Disruptions: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faced criticism for abruptly finalizing the summit’s communiqué without resolving disputes over language concerning the war, leading to dissatisfaction among Western leaders and highlighting challenges in achieving consensus.

Economic Impacts:

• Market Reactions: The geopolitical developments prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets, including global bonds, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc, reflecting concerns over escalating conflict. European equities experienced declines, indicating market apprehension.
• Energy Concerns: With winter approaching, there is growing unease about energy supplies, particularly in Europe, as the conflict raises the risk of disruptions.

As the summit concludes, the international community remains focused on the potential for de-escalation and the broader implications of the conflict on global stability and economic health.